On February 24, 2022, before the Russian-Ukrainian war broke out, Ukraine was one of the countries with the most significant photovoltaic growth in Europe. According to the "Decarbonisation of Ukraine's Energy Industry" released by the Razumkov Center in Ukraine and the Hanns Seidel Foundation in Germany. In 2019, Ukraine ranked among the top 10 in the world in terms of renewable energy development; in 2020, the scale of photovoltaic development ranked among the top 5 in Europe.
According to information from the Ukrainian non-profit organization "Resistance", Ukraine's cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity at the end of 2019 reached around 3GW, surpassing the cumulative installed capacity of many European countries at that tim. From 2014 to 2020, Ukraine’s average annual photovoltaic installed capacity grew by almost 70% on average. However, after the war broke out, many photovoltaic sites and distributed projects in Ukraine were damaged by the war. Almost all the projects in Ukraine that once accounted for about 43% of the country's renewable energy were destroyed, and many photovoltaic projects were also burned. At present, the actual photovoltaic It is difficult to calculate the installed capacity.
From January to September 2024, sales increased by 854% year-on-year. Compared with the previous two years, demand has slowly recovered.
Observing InfoLink China's export customs data, after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, China's exports of photovoltaic modules to Ukraine dropped sharply from 83.9MW in February 2022 to 7.5MW in March, a drop of more than 90%, and almost stopped since April. The volume of shipments in 2022 will be approximately 181.7 MW. In 2023, China exported Ukrainian photovoltaic modules, with the average monthly import volume being even less than 1.5 MW. The annual volume of shipments dropped to 15.8 MW, a year-on-year decrease of 91%. Photovoltaic development has almost come to a complete standstill.
From January to September 2024, the volume of China's photovoltaic modules exported to Ukraine was approximately 103 MW. Although the volume is still at a low level, compared with 10.8 MW in the same period last year, it increased significantly by 854% year-on-year. Compared with 2022 and 2023, Ukraine’s cargo volume in 2024 has gradually recovered.
As former U.S. President Donald Trump will return to the White House in January 2025, his past rhetoric and international political thinking may put pressure on Ukraine to negotiate with Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy also said that Trump would bring the war between Russia and Ukraine to an "early end." Although the current Russia-Ukraine war is still ongoing, Russia and Ukraine may take advantage of Trump's inauguration to intensify their attacks to increase bargaining chips for future negotiations. Therefore, the possibility of escalation cannot be ruled out in the short term. But in the long run, there is still a chance that the Russia-Ukraine war will see the dawn of a ceasefire next year. With Ukraine’s future post-war reconstruction and its strategic goals of energy independence and energy diversification, Ukraine will have long-term demand for photovoltaic and other renewable energy sources. is expected to increase.
Favorable government policies and assistance from international entities will contribute to the future development of the Ukrainian photovoltaic market
Starting from the second half of 2024, the Ukrainian government will successively launch favorable policies for photovoltaics. On July 18, Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada canceled import tariffs and value-added tax on gas turbine, photovoltaic, wind energy and energy storage related products, bringing good news to module manufacturers for shipments. In addition, the Ukrainian government has set up a special budget fund of more than 550 million euros to support the operations of energy-related industries, bringing benefits to long-term photovoltaic development. On July 23, Yulia Svyrydenko, First Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Economic Development and Trade of Ukraine, also announced that he would launch a zero-interest loan program in collaboration with major banks to assist people in borrowing money and installing energy storage systems. Household photovoltaic and micro-wind power installations are expected to drive demand for distributed projects and energy storage in Usi and other safe areas in the short term.
In addition to the government's favorable policies, EU aid is also extremely important. Since the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war, the EU has provided energy security assistance to Ukraine totaling up to 2 billion euros. On September 19, 2024, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced at a joint press conference with Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), The EU will provide 160 million euros in aid to Ukraine before the winter of 2024 to help "repair, connect, and stabilize" Stabilize)” Ukraine’s renewable energy-related measures, and also emphasized that strengthening local photovoltaic development will be a priority assistance matter.
On November 5, 2024, Andriy Konechenkov, Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Ukrainian Wind Energy Association, stated that a green energy development fund is being prepared with the European Ukrainian Energy Agency (EUEA) to stimulate the development of renewable energy in Ukraine Facilities construction, and through the lowest price guarantee fund, provide investors with long-term stable income protection. Overall, it remains to be seen whether the Ukrainian investment market will be successfully stimulated in the future, but from the starting point of this fund, Ukraine is gradually rebuilding the country's photovoltaic investment market.
The war in Ukraine has been going on for some time, but maritime cargo transport to Ukrainian ports has almost ceased to exist. The image below shows a real-time satellite image of a merchant ship. We can see that almost no ships arrive at Ukrainian ports
Currently, shipments to Ukraine are handled through Romanian and Polish ports. Many importers from Ukraine are taking this step. Unload the containers at Polish, Romanian or Slovenian ports and ship the goods to Ukraine.
Future Outlook of Ukraine’s Overall Photovoltaic Market
Taking into consideration the development situation of Ukraine's photovoltaic market, stimulating policies, overall development potential, and the possible resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2025, all of these will bring benefits to Ukraine's long-term photovoltaic demand. Although there are some problems to be overcome in Ukraine, and the uncertainty of the recent war is still high, in terms of the urgent demand for photovoltaic modules in the reconstruction stage, long-term demand is still expected.
Overall, InfoLink estimates that Ukraine's photovoltaic demand will fall around 400-600 MW in 2024, while next year there is a chance it will rise to about 40% year-on-year, with demand falling in the 600-800 MW range. Although it is difficult for Ukrainian demand to recover significantly in the short term, it is expected to return to the GW market in the long term. The country's demand is expected to exceed 1 GW between 2026 and 2027, and reach around 1.5 GW in 2028. The market prospects are promising.
